What are the chances of that happening?

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This email from one of our moorer's was just too good not to share on my blog. I've promised £10 to Red Nose Day if he let me post it and very sportingly he has offered to donate £10 if I did — thanks Roger!!
"Hi Janet, Sorry to hear about the loss of your No. 8 stencil

This obviously has an impact on me as we are moving from I8 to E38, which given the current situation causes me great concern. Do you intend to get an "8" exactly the same as the previous one or can I expect the end of the Jetties to read something like "IB" or "J3B" which is obviously concerning from an aesthetically pleasing point of view.

Using a rough calculation based on your website marina layout and my limited memory of maths lessons I have worked out that the chances of this grave situation affecting me on both jetties is at least 1 in 15245...

Based on the following assumptions:

  • Chances of the "8" stencil falling in to the water, given you have a full set of number stencils 0-9 = 1 in 10
  • Chances of NB "Next Generation" moving FROM a jetty with an "8" in it = 26 in 227 (approx)
  • Chances of NB "Next Generation" Moving TO a jetty with an "8" in it = 26 in 227 (approx)
  • Chances of bystanders being on jetty at that particular time (based on webcam analysis) = 1 in 20
  • Chances of said bystanders shouting abuse and threatening to sink you = evens

Therefore, overall probability of scenario = 1/10 x 26/227 x 26/227 x 1/20 x 1/1 = 676/10305800 = 1/15245 approx.

Happy Red Nose Day! Roger Drinkwater

Further reading

The Audlem Lass
Janet: Thu 21 Mar

The Audlem Lass will be back in the water from 30th March 2019. This wonderful little service, run by volunteers, offers a short boat trip from the marina to the bottom of the Audlem Flight (and back). The service operates every Saturday, Sunday and Bank Holiday until the end of October. You can also charter the boat for private use during the week, subject to crew availability. Call Joe...

wheelybus_o
Sam: Wed 16 Jan 1:17pm

Look what's arrived. The Overwater Wheelybus has, after some phenomenal fundraising, been handed over to us today. Now we can transport wheelchair users, and those with mobility issues, for trips on our wheelchair friendly Wheelyboat and to appointments...

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Janet: Mon 29 Oct

We are very proud to say they made it! — our engineering team from Overwater Marina, lead by Simon Peek, workshop manager have recently been paddling for pounds as they completed a mammoth 10 mile paddle from the marina, near Audlem, to Nantwich basin and back to raise funds for the Royal National Lifeboat Institute. The team nicknamed "Peeky's Blinders" were in their bespoke mini...

Marina News

The Audlem Lass
Audlem Lass back in the water
Thu 21 Mar
wheelybus_o
The Wheelybus has arrived!
Wed 16 Jan 1:17pm
Raft Padddle 1
3 Men in a Boat raise over £700
Mon 29 Oct
PEEKYS BLINDERS 2016-1
Three men in a boat.
Tue 16 Oct 2:56pm

Janet's Blog

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Peeky's Blinders
Festival Fatigue
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A busy August
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