What are the chances of that happening?

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This email from one of our moorer's was just too good not to share on my blog. I've promised £10 to Red Nose Day if he let me post it and very sportingly he has offered to donate £10 if I did — thanks Roger!!
"Hi Janet, Sorry to hear about the loss of your No. 8 stencil

This obviously has an impact on me as we are moving from I8 to E38, which given the current situation causes me great concern. Do you intend to get an "8" exactly the same as the previous one or can I expect the end of the Jetties to read something like "IB" or "J3B" which is obviously concerning from an aesthetically pleasing point of view.

Using a rough calculation based on your website marina layout and my limited memory of maths lessons I have worked out that the chances of this grave situation affecting me on both jetties is at least 1 in 15245...

Based on the following assumptions:

  • Chances of the "8" stencil falling in to the water, given you have a full set of number stencils 0-9 = 1 in 10
  • Chances of NB "Next Generation" moving FROM a jetty with an "8" in it = 26 in 227 (approx)
  • Chances of NB "Next Generation" Moving TO a jetty with an "8" in it = 26 in 227 (approx)
  • Chances of bystanders being on jetty at that particular time (based on webcam analysis) = 1 in 20
  • Chances of said bystanders shouting abuse and threatening to sink you = evens

Therefore, overall probability of scenario = 1/10 x 26/227 x 26/227 x 1/20 x 1/1 = 676/10305800 = 1/15245 approx.

Happy Red Nose Day! Roger Drinkwater

Further reading

The bridge in the Snow
Janet: Fri 11 Oct

Winter is on its way — don't get caught out — make sure you winterise your boat. Ask at Reception about our winterising and dewinterising and our Overwinter Care package. call us on 01270 812677 or email info@o...

Misty Monday
Janet: Fri 11 Oct

Stay say this winter and check your Carbon Monoxide (CO) and Smoke alarms — it could save your life! Carbon Monoxide is a silent killer — it has no odour. DO make sure your boat has a CO alarm, DO check the batteries, DO respond if it goes off — open the windows and doors and get out of the boat. DON'T leave ashes from your fire inside the boat — even as they cool they can be giving off...

Anna
Janet: Fri 11 Oct

Don't ignore your life jackets — this time of year is a good time to check them over and get them serviced. You can service your life jacket through SeaSafe from as little as £9.95. You can drop it off at the Overwater Reception and they will collect it for you. Call the Marina Reception on 01270 812677 for more...

Marina News

The bridge in the Snow
Winter is on its Way
Fri 11 Oct
Misty Monday
Stay Safe - Check Your alarms
Fri 11 Oct
Anna
Lifejacket Servicing
Fri 11 Oct
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