What are the chances of that happening?

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This email from one of our moorer's was just too good not to share on my blog. I've promised £10 to Red Nose Day if he let me post it and very sportingly he has offered to donate £10 if I did — thanks Roger!!
"Hi Janet, Sorry to hear about the loss of your No. 8 stencil

This obviously has an impact on me as we are moving from I8 to E38, which given the current situation causes me great concern. Do you intend to get an "8" exactly the same as the previous one or can I expect the end of the Jetties to read something like "IB" or "J3B" which is obviously concerning from an aesthetically pleasing point of view.

Using a rough calculation based on your website marina layout and my limited memory of maths lessons I have worked out that the chances of this grave situation affecting me on both jetties is at least 1 in 15245...

Based on the following assumptions:

  • Chances of the "8" stencil falling in to the water, given you have a full set of number stencils 0-9 = 1 in 10
  • Chances of NB "Next Generation" moving FROM a jetty with an "8" in it = 26 in 227 (approx)
  • Chances of NB "Next Generation" Moving TO a jetty with an "8" in it = 26 in 227 (approx)
  • Chances of bystanders being on jetty at that particular time (based on webcam analysis) = 1 in 20
  • Chances of said bystanders shouting abuse and threatening to sink you = evens

Therefore, overall probability of scenario = 1/10 x 26/227 x 26/227 x 1/20 x 1/1 = 676/10305800 = 1/15245 approx.

Happy Red Nose Day! Roger Drinkwater

Further reading

Overwater Marina Cheshire January 2018
Janet: Thu 01 Feb

You'd normally expect January to be a pretty quiet time of year for a marina, but not for us! Where can I start? Well first we headed off to the London Boat Show to pick up the Runner Up prize in the Marina of the Year Awards in a very hotly contested Inland category. I can't believe we've now been in the top two for fours years in a row. This year the boat show sported a new five...

spanner
Janet: Thu 18 Jan 1:19pm

Marine Engineer WantedTo join our small, friendly and expanding workshop team at our busy narrowboat marina on the Shropshire Union. This is a full time position, although part time hours may be considered for the right applicant and we can offer good pay and working conditions. Must have experience of engine maintenance and diesel heaters. Boat joinery and plumbing experience an advantage...

London Boat Show 2018
Janet: Thu 18 Jan

We are pleased to announce that Overwater was awarded Runner Up in the 2018 TYHA Marina of the Year Awards. The Inland category is a very competitive one so we are delighted with this result, not least as it is our 4th year in the top two! Janet and Angus Maughan recently attended the London Boat Show for the award presentation. Huge thanks must go to everyone who voted for...

Marina News

Overwater Marina Cheshire January 2018
Busy, busy, busy
Thu 01 Feb
spanner
Marine Engineer Vacancy
Thu 18 Jan 1:19pm
London Boat Show 2018
Marina of the Year Awards 2018
Thu 18 Jan
christmas, xmas, santa
Christmas Opening Hours
Tue 19 Dec 12:40pm

Janet's Blog

Misty Monday
Ho ho ho
Mon 01 Jan
Cheshire Chicks Dressage team at Quest Regionals 2017
Flying off to the nationals!
Wed 01 Nov
Ash lodge decking
What a view
Sun 01 Oct
Grebe
Goose rescue
Tue 01 Aug