What are the chances of that happening?

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This email from one of our moorer's was just too good not to share on my blog. I've promised £10 to Red Nose Day if he let me post it and very sportingly he has offered to donate £10 if I did — thanks Roger!!
"Hi Janet, Sorry to hear about the loss of your No. 8 stencil

This obviously has an impact on me as we are moving from I8 to E38, which given the current situation causes me great concern. Do you intend to get an "8" exactly the same as the previous one or can I expect the end of the Jetties to read something like "IB" or "J3B" which is obviously concerning from an aesthetically pleasing point of view.

Using a rough calculation based on your website marina layout and my limited memory of maths lessons I have worked out that the chances of this grave situation affecting me on both jetties is at least 1 in 15245...

Based on the following assumptions:

  • Chances of the "8" stencil falling in to the water, given you have a full set of number stencils 0-9 = 1 in 10
  • Chances of NB "Next Generation" moving FROM a jetty with an "8" in it = 26 in 227 (approx)
  • Chances of NB "Next Generation" Moving TO a jetty with an "8" in it = 26 in 227 (approx)
  • Chances of bystanders being on jetty at that particular time (based on webcam analysis) = 1 in 20
  • Chances of said bystanders shouting abuse and threatening to sink you = evens

Therefore, overall probability of scenario = 1/10 x 26/227 x 26/227 x 1/20 x 1/1 = 676/10305800 = 1/15245 approx.

Happy Red Nose Day! Roger Drinkwater

Further reading

RNLI Festival 2018
Janet: Thu 30 Aug 2:10pm

Don't forget to join us for an evening of FREE entertainment on Saturday 8th September. The evening starts at 6pm with an interesting and amusing talk on the history of the RNLI from Peter Robinson, a retired Lifeboat Coxwain. Musical entertainment will be provided by the Funky Choir and our headline act — the fabulous Geoff Rey. The RNLI bar and BBQ will be open from 6pm and there will...

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Sam: Thu 02 Aug 11:42am

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Please note our WIFI system will be unavailable on Thursday 5th — Friday 6th July as engineers will be on site upgrading our system. We apologise in advance for any inconvenience this may...

Marina News

RNLI Festival 2018
Festival Entertainment Sat 8th
Thu 30 Aug 2:10pm
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RNLI Festival
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spanner
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