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What are the chances of that happening?

This email from one of our moorer's was just too good not to share on my blog. I've promised £10 to Red Nose Day if he let me post it and very sportingly he has offered to donate £10 if I did – thanks Roger!!
"Hi Janet, Sorry to hear about the loss of your No. 8 stencil

This obviously has an impact on me as we are moving from I8 to E38, which given the current situation causes me great concern. Do you intend to get an "8" exactly the same as the previous one or can I expect the end of the Jetties to read something like "IB" or "J3B" which is obviously concerning from an aesthetically pleasing point of view.

Using a rough calculation based on your website marina layout and my limited memory of maths lessons I have worked out that the chances of this grave situation affecting me on both jetties is at least 1 in 15245...

Based on the following assumptions:

  • Chances of the "8" stencil falling in to the water, given you have a full set of number stencils 0-9 = 1 in 10
  • Chances of NB "Next Generation" moving FROM a jetty with an "8" in it = 26 in 227 (approx)
  • Chances of NB "Next Generation" Moving TO a jetty with an "8" in it = 26 in 227 (approx)
  • Chances of bystanders being on jetty at that particular time (based on webcam analysis) = 1 in 20
  • Chances of said bystanders shouting abuse and threatening to sink you = evens

Therefore, overall probability of scenario = 1/10 x 26/227 x 26/227 x 1/20 x 1/1 = 676/10305800 = 1/15245 approx.

Happy Red Nose Day! Roger Drinkwater

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